In this episode, David McKnight addresses one of the biggest myths in retirement planning: once you retire, you need to dramatically reduce your exposure to stocks.
The reason why most financial advisors recommend reducing stock exposure in retirement has very little to do with stocks and everything to do with sequence of returns risk.
Sequence of returns risk is what happens when you’re forced to withdraw money from your investment portfolio during a market downturn.
If the market falls 30% and you’re simultaneously taking withdrawals to pay for your living expenses, you’re locking in losses and permanently impairing your portfolio’s ability to recover.
According to David, the way to solve this problem is by ensuring that your essential expenses are covered before you ever retire.
When you’re at least five years out from retirement, David believes that one of the most important decisions you can make is to create the so-called income floor.
An income floor is a guaranteed stream of income that covers your basic living expenses regardless of what the stock market is doing.
The volatility shield adds a second layer of protection that has to do with discretionary expenses (e.g., a trip around the world, taking the grandchildren to Disney World, etc.).
Suze Orman has controversially recommended that retirees keep 3-5 years’ worth of living expenses in a savings account, so they don’t have to sell investments during a market downturn.
While David agrees with the concept, he doesn’t see savings accounts as the most efficient place to put that money in.
Instead, he’d rather have retirees accumulate that money in a completely separate account (a volatility shield) – which, unlike a savings account, has the potential to grow 5-7% net fees over time.
Looking for an alternative volatility shield? Look at cash value life insurance in the form of indexed universal life (IUL), says David.
An Ernst & Young study found that retirees who included the volatility shield strategy and a guaranteed lifetime income annuity in the retirement plan were able to dramatically increase the sustainable withdrawal rate on their investment portfolio.
Since the early 1990s, the gold standard on sustainable withdrawal rates has been 4%.
The 4% Rule says that if you withdraw approximately 4% of your portfolio each year, there’s a reasonably high chance that your money will last a full 30-year retirement.
However, when retirees had access to a volatility buffer and could avoid taking distributions following market downturns, sustainable withdrawal rates increased dramatically (in some scenarios, up to 8%).
David is a believer of the fact that the portfolio that got you into retirement can also take you through retirement – with a recommended 70% in U.S. stock market index funds and 30% in international stock market index funds.
For David, the reason why this approach works well is that, with it, you solve the two biggest issues in retirement: income and volatility.
Moreover, if you can position these assets inside tax-free accounts through strategic Roth contributions and Roth conversions, you gain protection against yet another threat, tax rate risk.
David concludes by stressing that it is not that the buy-and-hold strategy doesn’t work, it’s that most retirees don’t have the protection tools necessary to stay committed to the strategy when markets become turbulent.
Mentioned in this episode:
David’s new book: The Secret Order of Millionaires
David’s national bestselling book: The Guru Gap: How America’s Financial Gurus Are Leading You Astray, and How to Get Back on Track
Tax-Free Income for Life: A Step-by-Step Plan for a Secure Retirement by David McKnight
PowerOfZero.com (free video series)
@mcknightandco on Twitter
@davidcmcknight on Instagram
David McKnight on YouTube
Get David’s Tax-free Tool Kit at taxfreetoolkit.com
